04 January 2012

10 Countries to Rule World Trade

The economy is suffering through a tough phase, and there is no definite picture how the global economy will look in the next year. In a report by Citigroup titled as Trade Transformed: The Emerging New Corridors of Trade Power, the economists' project that the world trade in real terms is set to jump from $37 trillion in 2010 to $287 trillion in 2050. Chief Economist, Willem Buiter recently published forecasts for global trade in 2050, where Europe is predicted to face turmoil, China is expected to overtake U.S. as the world's leader in trade as early as 2015. Asia is expected to turn into world's largest regional trade corridor in the coming time.

Listed below are 10 countries by Business Insider that are expected to rule world economy by 2050.


China's economy will not break; instead, it will continue its vigorous energy and stay as a blaze of optimism for the still fragile world economy in 2012. China is expected to overtake the U.S. to become the world's largest trader by 2015 and to remain in the top spot for the rest of our forecast horizon. It has already occupied the spot of the top exporter of goods and services. China is set to maintain its economic overhaul, and pull out its economy from the deep dependence on exports and set free for more domestic demand. China is expected to trade for around $52.2 trillion by 2050, with around 18.2 percent of world trade. China currently accounts for 9.5 percent of world trade, which is $ 3.6 trillion and it will soon overtake U.S. by 2015. Chinese leaders have also expressed a rigid assurance to reduce trade barriers and encourage regional integration in the Asia-Pacific region.


The Economy of India is the ninth largest in the world by nominal GDP and the fourth largest by Purchasing Power Parity (PPP). It is one of the G-20 major economies and a member of BRICS. The economic growth, as calculated by the Gross Domestic Product, improved to 8.5 percent in 2010-11 from 8 percent in 2009-10 due to better farm output and construction activities and financial services performance. India is ranked at second position in the report. Though the country was not included in the list of top 10 countries by trade in 2010, it is expected to set an account for 2.8 percent of world trade in 2015 and 5.6 percent by 2030. The country is expected to trade $25.7 trillion by 2050 including 9 percent of world trade.


The top global leader in trade, U.S. ranks third in the list. Accounting for a massive 10.7 percent of world trade, it will only account 8.2 percent of world trade in 2030. The slowdown in the growth of real GDP in the first quarter of 2011 showed that the economy is not gaining momentum, dampening prospects for a meaningful reduction in unemployment in the near future. The U.S. is expected to lose ground to India and China with $19.1 trillion by 2050 with 6.6 percent of world trade.


German economy has shown resilience in 2011. Being the largest economy in the European Union its manufacturing industry contributed 25 percent of GDP more than twice the value added from manufacturing in the UK. In 2010 Germany accounted for 7.6 percent of world trade at $2.86 trillion. Though trade is projected to increase to $5.8 trillion in 2030, it will account for just 4.7 percent of world trade.


South Korea has a market economy which ranks 15th in the world by nominal GDP and 12th by Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), identifying it as one of the G-20 major economies. Despite the global financial crisis, the South Korean economy was able to avoid a recession unlike most industrialized economies. In 2010, South Korea made a strong economic rebound with a growth rate of 6.1 percent, signaling a return of the economy to pre-crisis levels. South Korea's export has recorded $424 billion in the first eleven months of the year 2010. The South Korean economy of the 21st century is expected to grow from 3.9 percent to 4.2 percent annually between 2011 and 2030, similar to growth rates of developing countries such as Brazil or Russia. At $1.05 trillion Korea accounted for 2.8 percent of world trade in 2010. This figure is set to rise to $4.7 trillion and account for 3.8 percent of world trade by 2030.


Indonesia makes to the list for the first timemotivated by trade with China, Japan and the European Union. Although the country's economy slowed to 4.5 percent growth in 2009 from the 6 percent-plus growth rate recorded in 2007 and 2008, by 2010 growth returned back to a 6 percent rate. Indonesia outperformed most of its regional neighbors during the recession. The government in 2011 faces the challenge of improving Indonesia's infrastructure to eliminate hindrances to growth, addressing the climate change concerns, predominantly with regard to conserving Indonesia's forests and peat lands. The figure for Indonesia is set to rise to $8.8 trillion and account for 3.1 percent of world trade by 2050

hong kong
Hong Kong

Though Hong Kong did not make into the list in 2010, it is expected to jump to seventh position with $3.8 trillion in trade in 2030. Going by country's strong economic performance in the first half of the year the GDP growth in Hong Kong in 2011 was up to 5.8 percent. But the economic expansion is expected to slow down to 4.6 percent in this year. By 2050 the figure will rise to $8.5 trillion and account for 2.3 percent of world trade.


Japan's GDP Growth in the final three months of 2010 was 2.9 percent but total GDP Growth for 2010 was 4.0 percent, one of the highest growth rates for about 20 years. But Japan's economy was disrupted in March 2011 due to the earthquake and the effect of the tsunami. Japan at $1.78 trillion accounted for 4.8 percent of world trade in 2010 is predicted to trip in the rankings. By 2030, it will account for only 3.5 percent of world trade.


Singapore's economy grew 3.6 percent in the final three months which lifted the growth for the whole year to 4.8 percent. Manufacturing continued to grow in the last quarter expanding 6.9 percent on a yearly basis. Services also rose by 4.6 percent while construction grew just 1.5 percent. Singapore will account for 2.7 percent of world trade in 2030 and its trade will total $3.2 trillion in 2030.


Higher inflation in UK lead to a period of higher interest rates. Huge level of household debt were left to be repaid and probability of asset price deflation. UK's trade is set to rise from $1.77 trillion in 2015, to $3.2 trillion in 2030 and account of 2.6 percent of world trade.